SSA-04 · Module 7

Current Geopolitical Landscape

Module 7 of 7 · ~30 min

Two Coalitions, Not One Consensus

Every module in this course has circled the same unresolved question in different forms — who gets to write the rules, and who they favor. This closing module shows where that question actually landed in practice: not a single agreed framework, but two competing coalitions, each with a real, stated case for existing.

The Two Frameworks

Artemis Accords vs. ILRS

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Artemis Accords

US-Led, Bilateral Structure

Launched in 2020 (Module 4), built from individual bilateral agreements between the US and each partner nation rather than one multilateral treaty. The coalition has grown substantially since its founding and continues to add partners.

  • Bilateral agreements, shared principles
  • Led by the US, growing partner list
  • Not a binding international treaty
VS
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ILRS

China-Russia Led, Joint Program

The International Lunar Research Station, announced in 2021 as a joint China-Russia lunar program, positioned as a separate framework open to additional partner nations — a competing coalition rather than a rival treaty text.

  • Jointly led by China and Russia
  • Structured as a shared research program
  • Also actively adding partner nations
Presented Without a Winner

Each Coalition, In Its Own Terms

Both coalitions describe themselves as open, cooperative, and consistent with international law. This course presents both framings as stated, without endorsing either.

Artemis Accords' Stated Case

A Rules-Based Coalition

Presented by its founders as a transparent, principles-based framework — explicit commitments to Outer Space Treaty compliance, interoperability between partner missions, deconfliction of activities, and orbital debris mitigation (Module 6), open to any nation willing to sign on to those shared terms.

ILRS's Stated Case

A Genuinely Multilateral Alternative

Presented by its founders as open to any interested nation regardless of political alignment, and as a cooperative scientific research program rather than a framework built and defined by one country's bilateral terms — a direct answer to the objection Module 4 already covered.

The Course-Length View

Why Two Coalitions Formed at All

This split is the direct outcome of two things this course already covered. Module 2's Moon Agreement tried to build one universal, binding resource-rights consensus and failed to attract any major spacefaring nation. Module 4 covered what happened instead: the US and its partners built legal certainty unilaterally and bilaterally rather than wait for a consensus that never came. Once one bloc moved first, a rival bloc organizing around the same objections Module 4 described — rather than joining the first bloc's terms — was close to inevitable.

Neither coalition is the "correct" one under international law, because no binding universal law on the underlying questions exists yet. That absence is the actual throughline connecting every module in SSA-04.

A Necessary Caveat

This Is a Snapshot

Coalition membership, stated positions, and even the coalitions themselves can change faster than most of what this curriculum covers. Treat everything in this module as accurate as of when it was written, not as a fixed, permanent roster — and check current sources before relying on any specific membership claim.

Glossary

Key Terms

International Lunar Research Station (ILRS)
A joint China-Russia lunar program announced in 2021, positioned as an open, multilateral alternative to the Artemis Accords.
Bilateral Agreement
An agreement between exactly two parties — the structural basis of the Artemis Accords, which is built from individual US-partner agreements rather than one multilateral treaty.
Multilateral Framework
An agreement or structure involving three or more parties negotiating together — the framing ILRS uses to distinguish itself from the Artemis Accords' bilateral structure.
Coalition (Space Policy Context)
A group of nations aligned around shared stated principles or a joint program, without necessarily being bound by one universal treaty — the model both Artemis and ILRS follow, in the continued absence of binding consensus.
Sourcing

For This Module

The Artemis Accords text and signatory list, public China National Space Administration and Roscosmos statements on the ILRS, and NASA public materials on the Artemis program. This module should always be checked for current developments before publishing — coalition membership is the single most time-sensitive fact in this entire course.

SSA-04 Complete

All seven modules are published — from the Outer Space Treaty's foundations through today's competing coalitions, every rule stated, every benefit named, every counter-position given its full weight. Continue to SSA-05: Planetary and Space Exploration.

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